The top rankings storylines and questions ahead of the Australian swing
The vacations are over.
The training blocks -- some nasty days in the gym -- are winding down. The 2026 commitments have been made, and the players are off to Australia and New Zealand.
Are you ready for some tennis?
The WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz kicks off the first week of the new year. The United Cup unfolds in Sydney and Perth, beginning on Jan. 2. Two days later it’s the Brisbane International, featuring seven of the Top 10 players in the world. The ASB Classic in Auckland, New Zealand starts Jan. 5
Greg Garber and Brad Kallet set the table for the key rankings storylines to watch during the Australian swing, and the burning questions that we’ll get answers to over the next few weeks.
Will anyone close the gap on Sabalenka?
The storyline: Aryna Sabalenka arrives in Australia as the dominant force on tour, but she has a point to prove. Despite a spectacular year that saw her finish as World No. 1 in the PIF WTA Rankings for the second straight season, she fell just short of a three-peat in Melbourne last January. Now she returns to her favorite surface looking to further break away from rivals Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff (and the rest of the field). And as always, the target is on her back for the coveted No. 1 ranking.
The question: Will Sabalenka extend her points lead during the Australian swing, or will her rivals in the Top 5 close the gap?
Garber: Amanda Anisimova has a ton of momentum entering 2026, and a real chance to continue climbing this month. Sabalenka and Anisimova will be the top two seeds in Brisbane and could meet in the final, which could have real implications as the year progresses. Asked who has the best chance to overtake Sabalenka for the No. 1 ranking in 2026, Martina Navratilova cited the 24-year-old American. She has a long way to go, but she could take a major step toward that goal in Australia.
Kallet: Several players have a golden opportunity to close the gap in Australia. Anisimova is right at the top of that list, Greg, as is Swiatek and Gauff. But Sabalenka is just too good, and too steady, in Australia. She's rested, recharged and, and there's no reason to suspect she'll be anything but brilliant again in Australia. In fact, it's likely she extends her lead with a third title in Melbourne.
Defending champs have more pressure, little margin for error
The storyline: Success in 2025 means pressure in 2026. Reigning Australian Open champion Madison Keys and 2025 Auckland winner Clara Tauson will be defending a lot of points this month, and any early-season slip-ups could lead to significant slides down the ladder.
The question: What’s the outlook for defending champions Keys and Tauson?
Garber: Few really expect Keys to defend her title in Melbourne. I mean, I get it. She came out of nowhere a year ago, on the cusp of 30, and slammed her way to her first major title. It was astonishing and uplifting. Sabalenka will be favored to reach her fourth straight final -- and win her third title. But Keys loves the Aussie summer; last year, including her title in Adelaide, she won all 12 of her matches there. Just sayin’.
Kallet: Tauson is in a different spot than she was a year ago, when she won the ASB Classic as the World No. 50. Now ranked 12th in the world after a 36-win season, the Dane has opted to pass on defending her title and instead play the 500-level Brisbane International, followed by another 500 in Adelaide. It's an appropriate step up, though there's significant pressure that comes with that, and it will be fascinating to see how this affects her ranking when the dust settles.
She does have a great opportunity to gain significant points in Melbourne after only reaching the third round last year. She lost to Sabalenka in that match, and can take comfort knowing she won't have to play a World No. 1 at that stage this time around.
What’s next for the world's top teens?
The storyline: Mirra Andreeva and Victoria Mboko have evolved from rising stars to legitimate contenders any time they take the court. Andreeva is fighting to cement her place in the world’s Top 10, and Mboko is on the verge of her Top 15 debut. This month is about proving that their youth movement is here to stay.
The question: How high will these two upstarts rise in the first month of the season?
Garber: High. Andreeva, at 18, is actually younger than Mboko, but has had several years to assimilate to the challenges at the very top of tennis. She rose as high as No. 5 after winning the WTA 1000 titles in Dubai and Indian Wells and drifted down to her current No. 9 at the end of the year. Her second-half record of 20-13 will pay dividends in 2026 because she’s been through the tough, down-the-stretch campaign.
Kallet: The sky is the limit for both, though neither is likely to make monumental strides in January. This is still all new for Mboko, who during last year's Australian Open was ranked outside the Top 300 and playing WTT W35 tournaments in Martinique and Guadeloupe. Andreeva had a successful Australian swing last year, reaching the semis in Brisbane and the fourth round of the Australian Open. Could she make a run to the quarters or semis in Melbourne? Certainly, but I'm proceeding with caution after how last season ended.
Both players will continue climbing in due time, but I don't think it happens next month.
Established veterans inching closer to the Top 10
The storyline: Former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka and 2025 Comeback Player of the Year Belinda Bencic are threatening to return to the upper echelon of the rankings. With the Top 10 in clear view, both are in need of deep runs in Australia to continue their ascension.
The question: Is Osaka or Bencic better positioned to rise in the rankings in Australia?
Garber: I like Bencic’s trajectory here. A year ago, she wasn’t even close to being physically ready to play top-notch tennis, and yet she found a way to run to the title in Abu Dhabi. Talking to her recently, I got the idea that while she’s still not 100 percent physically, she’s getting closer. Having closed that gap, this bodes well for her in the early going, and I think she’ll go on a couple runs early.
Kallet: I'm all in on Osaka's resurgence after her runs in Montreal and New York last year. And just as important as her improved play on court is her mentality. She sounds energized, happy and inspired to get back to her perch at the top of the game.
Like Tauson, she opted to skip Auckland -- where she made the final -- and will instead play the 500-level United Cup. From there it's on to Melbourne, where she'll gain rankings points if she gets past the third round. She hasn't been past that round since 2021, when she won the title, but she seems positioned to do so for the first time in a while.
Which players outside the Top 20 will shine brightest under the Aussie sun?
The storyline: The gap between the Top 30 and the Top 20 is the hardest to bridge. There is an exciting combination of established talents and new faces -- like Diana Shnaider, Leylah Fernandez and the surging Maya Joint -- in that category, and they’re all just one deep run away from entering the Top 20.
The question: Which player outside the Top 20 has the best chance of breaking through during the Australian swing?
Garber: Marta Kostyuk, still only 23 years old, is an enormous talent. Last year at the WTA 1000 in Doha, she dispatched Gauff in straight sets before losing to Anisimova in a three-setter. Then in Madrid she played a barnburner quarterfinal against Sabalenka, which the World No. 1 battled to win 7-6 (4), 7-6 (7). Kostyuk is one of the few players on tour who can come close to matching Sabalenka’s power and mobility. She just needs to find the kind of consistency that great players achieve every week -- just as Sabalenka did at 23. Keep a close eye on her this month.
Kallet: It's easy to forget that Leylah Fernandez is a former Grand Slam finalist and Top 15 player, and she's still only 23. The Canadian admitted that she struggled with some off-the-court distractions early in 2025, but got in a groove in the second half of the year, winning titles in Washington, D.C. -- the biggest of her career -- and Osaka. Now on the cusp of the Top 20, and with a clear head, she's primed to return to the upper echelon of the rankings.
Oh, and Venus Williams absolutely loves her game, so much so that she handpicked her to play doubles at the US Open. That’s a hell of an endorsement.